Maine and Nebraska award one electoral vote to the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district and two electoral votes to the statewide winner. Save your Map Democratic Republican *No district-level delegates from Pennsylvania are allocated because those delegates are directly elected without indicating presidential preference. Maybe check back later! With a new slew This refreshed version of Win the White House challenges you to build your campaign and allows you to simulate a presidential election: Building arguments to support timely issues that are relevant to you Strategically raise funds to support your campaign FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast Princeton Election Consortium Electoral Map Colors indicate likelihood for a Clinton or Trump victory in each state based on current polling. And you are being followed. presidents in American history. (Defaults are from 2020), States Choosing Electors using Congressional District Method: This is likely to favour the Republicans, in which case Trump would end up staying in the White House. In 2012, President Obama carried 257 of the 673 majority-white counties where over a third of residents ages 25 and older hold at least a bachelor's degree. Additional contributions from Allison McCann. However, Latino voters tend to turn out at lower rates than whites and African-Americans and are heavily concentrated in non-battleground states, such as California, New York and Texas, limiting their influence in the Electoral College. There were seven faithless presidential electors. Vote Share (%) Turnout (%) Rep Votes. The states are not interactive on the map unless the split is . Use our simulator to build your own election result map, US election live follow all the latest updates, Tue 3 Nov 2020 16.41GMT First published on Fri 30 Oct 2020 10.20GMT, Helena Robertson, Ashley Kirk and Frank Hulley-Jones. Choose a county (or several) to move to a new state. After this standardization process, we then take a mean average of these daily entries in order to present the polling average. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Thank you, please check to confirm your subscription! Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse. The goal of this report . a campaign assistant working to elect her candidate. And for us to be thorough in that regard, we must have an electoral map tool. These are the states that had a lower than 3% margin in 2016 or switched from red to blue/blue to red between 2008 and 2016. These Results are controlled 100% by the computerGet the game here: http://270soft.com/us-election-games/president-election-game-2016-infinity/ Then adjust the sliders to see how shifts in turnout and support among different demographic groups could swing the Electoral College. African-Americans are consistently Democrats best demographic group. Sources: Edison Media Research/Mitofsky International (2004/2008/2012 exit polls); U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (turnout rates by race/ethnicity); U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (population estimates); Cook Political Report (election results; compiled from official sources). You must have Javascript enabled to play this game. Then click the Move button and the state you want to move your counties to. Non-Hisp. The 270toWin simulator has returned for 2016, currently featuring the most likely November match-up: Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump. Support|Gamepedia Wiki The way the site is structured, we can only have one simulation pairing, and so we've chosen to launch (rather than wait) with the most likely fall match-up. Play Fullscreen Do you want to be the next President of the United States? This game allows its users . The map above shows how the 2016 US Presidential election might go if only one demographic group got the vote. Defeat each candidate to unlock them for general . Default All Democratic All Republican All Tossup All Blank Tossup Only Tilt or Less Lean or Less Likely or Less Solid or Less 2000 Actual 2004 Actual 2008 Actual 2012 . The state-by-state vote share breaks down as follows: The simulation accounts for state-by-state rules as well. If you find something interesting -- a scenario that even Martin O'Malley could win -- let us know in the comments. The Excel workbook contains an election simulator that allows you to predict who will win each state, whilst keeping count of the Electoral College votes. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast. Please enter a name, party, and color for each candidate. Rep./Dem. Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated 2020 presidential election. scenarios below for examples. Ns2 network simulator feetures socks. If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. Some states remain very likely to go to Biden or Trump because they were won by large margins in 2016, or they have voted the same way in several recent elections. Change the settings below to see how shifts in party preference and turnout by different demographic groups would affect the 2016 presidential election. Best News 2023 Dove trovare peluche masha e orso cartone. Trump win Biden. The Political Machine is a trademark of Stardock Entertainment. First, we calculated the average share of the vote for each position (first place through fourth place) in all contests through Super Tuesday, with some adjustments made for cases where there would be fewer than four candidates. Related reporting: Trump's Path to a Contested Convention . Release Date: Jan 9, 2020. (Defaults are from 2020), Show Map Link (for use in uselectionatlas.org forum posts only), Calculator for Another Year: Bullaburra accommodation meaning. Which President's personality most closely matches yours? Multiplayer: Turning friends into frenemies. Review asus memo tablet. Biden may be ahead in the polls, but key battlegrounds that the Democrats lost unexpectedly in 2016 could come through again for Trump. 10.5%. Election simulation data from the Economist election model . To build a baseline model of the 2020 presidential election we started with the results of the 2016 election, measuring the support for President Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton by race, college education and age in each state. Or Don't. The election is your choice. For now, a combination of polling, 2012 actual and, The way the site is structured, we can only have one simulation pairing, and so we've chosen to launch (rather than wait) with the most likely fall match-up. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or more east to west, based on actual poll closing times. Special thanks to New Signature for their work on a clickable U.S. map. v1.2 Included: Ranked multiplayer matchmaking, election simulation mode, and new "Brexit" event. Copyright 2023 Stardock Entertainment. The probabilities will be determined by polling, particularly as that becomes more frequent. Choices will appear in coloured text. There's little evidence that Trump is improving on Romneys 6 percent showing, but without Obama on the ballot, Democrats will need to ensure black turnout remains high. In a winner-take-all state, the winner gets all the delegates regardless of vote share. 2021 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse. However, they turn out at lower rates than whites with degrees, and their share of the electorate shrinks every four years. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. For the Bernie Sanders fans out there, we continue to maintain the Sanders vs. Trump electoral map. had on the election, we considered the scenario in which several of the primary major party candidates were also o cial candidates in the nal presidential election. The United States presidential election of 2016 was the 58th quadrennial American presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. On any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results. Take our Presidential Personality Quiz. Campaign Trail has been modified to support additional scenarios here (including nearly every recent election and many older ones). Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote. Edited by Anna Brand. Colorado, Wyoming and Virgin Islands aren't holding a presidential preference vote either, but those states are included since those national convention delegates must indicate which candidate, if any, they intend to support. And since that wasn't enough . Romney received just 27 percent of their votes in 2012, and Trump is in danger of faring even worse. Something isn't right about this candidate. Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine. ET. You will answer questions about your platform and positions, and also about your campaign strategy. See the Princeton Election Consortium site for probability color scheme. Most prominent in suburbs and in swing states such as Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia, this growing segment turns out to vote much more reliably than any other group and has been increasingly leaning toward Democrats. Mess around. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved. Previously reliable states on both sides are now looking more competitive. This page contains results for all recent 2016 games that have been played on The Campaign Trail. We then applied these estimates at the county level and used a statistical technique (called iterative proportional fitting) to fit the estimates to actual vote results before reconstructing them at the state level. Number of IndependentsDefault123, Election Results for 2024 - Use Simplified Version of the Electoral College Calculator. Three additional faithless votes, one each in Colorado, Maine and Minnesota, were disallowed. Or will Trump stay in the White House? 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin Won't Seek Reelection Next Year, President Biden Launches Campaign for Reelection, Mike Pompeo Will Not Run for President in 2024, One of only 5 elections (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016) where the popular vote winner was defeated, Hillary Clinton first female presidential nominee of a major political party. The map was created by Ste Kinney-Fields and is based on data from from fivethirtyeight and 270towin.You can read the full article here.. Disclaimer: This post was written before the 2016 election results, so was a best guess as to how each group . Results can now split Maine and Nebraska, as there is at least some possibility that one congressional district in each of those states may be competitive in November. How to play? Walk the fine line between appealing to your base and winning a majority of the votes. Additional new features will be coming soon. In most states, the winner of the popular vote gets all of the state's electoral votes. The state-by-state . Campaign Trail results and averages by election: 2020 2016 2016a 2012 2000 1988 1976 1968 1960 1948 1916 1896 1860 1844 Tweet How do you stack up? Election simulator is a political satire game where you gain Voters by literally throwing cash at problems in society. There is also a community page thecampaigntrail on Reddit. Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College. Save your map Whites without college degrees are the bedrock of Donald Trump's coalition: Mitt Romney carried them by more than 20 percentage points in 2012, and Trump is on pace to well exceed that showing. To change a state's party, click on an individual state on the U.S. map. Voting history and 2016 margins have been retrieved from the Federal Election Commission. And since that wasn't enough, we also included data on how the states voted relative to the country on the whole, letting you see how much more liberal or conservative each one was versus the norm, even if it voted for a Democrat or a Republican. The United States presidential election of 2016 was the 58th quadrennial American presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. In the interactive graphic below, you decide which way these closer states will vote, and try to pave Joe Biden or Donald Trumps path to victory. Methodology. In the 1992 election, Ross Perot was such a candidate, winning approximately 19% of the popular vote and having over 30% of the nal vote in Maine and 27% in Utah [2]. Johnson wins at least one electoral vote. Click on this interactive map to create your own projections for the 2020 presidential race, see. States Choosing Electors using Winner-take-all Method: (Prefer a Simpler Version?) Specifically, we used exit polls and data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to estimate each demographic group's partisan preference, and data from the Census Bureau's 2016 report on voting and registration to estimate each group's turnout level. Sorry but an error occured. To build a baseline model of the 2020 presidential election we started with the results of the 2016 election, measuring the support for President Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton by . Results from the Campaign Trail will be tied to your account. Latino voters are about 11 percent of the eligible electorate in 2016, up 1 percentage point from four years ago. Can you take Biden to victory? Election Manager 2016 is an abstract strategic election simulation game where you manage your ticket in an attempt to get your candidate elected to the office of President of the United States. But it's not just any ol' electoral map simulator; we made a tool that lets you also 1) jump to particular scenarios and 2) see how the states have voted in the past. No delegates are allocated for Guam, American Samoa and North Dakota because they arent holding presidential preference votes and their delegates are unbound. These scenarios are custom-built by various enthusiasts of the game. This marked the first time that Maine has split its electoral vote since it moved away from the winner-take-all method in 1972. We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. Ns2 network simulator feetures socks. Last updated April 27, 2016 at 11:08 p.m. For the Bernie Sanders fans out there, we continue to maintain the, Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin Won't Seek Reelection Next Year, President Biden Launches Campaign for Reelection, Mike Pompeo Will Not Run for President in 2024, Chicago to Host 2024 Democratic Convention, Live Results: Elections for Wisconsin Supreme Court, Chicago Mayor Headline a Busy Tuesday. The tool populates an electoral map in about 15 seconds, based on a probability set for each state. Created February 25, 2021 It will take at least 270 electoral votes for a presidential candidate to win the 2020 election. Trumps unpopularity among white voters with college degrees could be his Achilles heel and Hillary Clintons salvation. Rep. Random. Such states ranked either a solid or likely win for either party, according to the Cook Political Report have already been coloured in for Biden and Trump in the graphic below. 2023-24 Election Forecast. 2024 Polls Presidential Election Senate GOP Primary Dem Primary Biden Approval Rating Tracker. Points Shop News Labs. Aside from 1872 - death of Horace Greeley - it is the greatest number since electors began casting one vote each for president and vice president (12th Amendment, 1804). Not only did they give President Obama 93 percent of their votes in 2012, but their turnout surpassed that of whites. This simulation uses a set of assumptions based on the results of the Republican primary so far. Non-college-educated whites skew older and rural and will be 46 percent of eligible voters in 2016, down from 49 percent in 2012. White. Greetings fellow Political Junkies! Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures? The tool populates an electoral map in about 15 seconds, based on a probability set for each state. Finally, the map can be populated randomly or more East-to-West, based on actual poll closing times. Senate Forecast Kentucky Gov Forecast. For example, candidates with less than a states required minimum share of the vote receive no delegates in that state. All Rights Reserved. McMullin wins at least one electoral vote. Each candidate comes with a modern perspective on all of the hot current issues and is ready to fight for the 2016 presidency. Electoral College Calculator and Map Generator - 2024 Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse. Weep at how arbitrary our electoral system is. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. WRITER / DIRECTOR : Greg Buchanan PROGRAMMERS: Cherie Davidson and Matt Nichols COMPOSER: Seb Peters ILLUSTRATOR: Adam Coburn LOGO: Anthony Gambino 2020 polling indicates a 14-day rolling average of statewide polls calculated by the Guardian, correct as of the timestamp above. But with the primaries now (mostly) behind us, we can start obsessing over who will win and how they will do it. DeSantis critical of China, hazy on Ukraine as he charts foreign policy path. The 270toWin simulator has returned for 2016, currently featuring the most likely November match-up: Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump. Give speeches, go on talk shows, hire unsavory operatives, and do whatever it takes to win on election day. [read full article], Hard to believe there are only 6 weeks until election day! Nonetheless, they still factor heavily in key states, including Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I've preloaded the simulator with data for the 2016 U.S. presidential election and a handful of other historical 3-party races that are interesting for a variety of reasons. This simulation uses a set of assumptions based on the results of the Republican primary so far. Bbc weather alicante october. 2016 election simulation as if voter turnout and preferences were the same as in 2012scenario Athe authors are not expressing the belief that this is a likely event. In states with delegates awarded by congressional district, the simulation allocates delegates in the following ranges: Due to rounding and the range of possible outcomes, individual candidates' delegate totals may sum to more than the total available delegates. We'll update the electoral vote after updating the number of electors the state gets. 2020 Electoral College Map Presidential candidates need 270 electoral votes to win an election. 2016 Electoral College Calculator Follow Election Polls, Predictions, Endorsements, and Mock Election on the Atlas Activity Stream; Atlas Weblog; Election Tools. Data analysis by David Wasserman. You can also narrow these results down to games played by a specific candidate and difficulty level. : Lesson Plan: . Election simulator. The Democratic incumbent, aged 79, passes on what would be a fairly easy path to a fourth term, He faces little opposition from within the Democratic Party; Possible Rematch with Donald Trump in 2024, The final Secretary of State under Donald Trump did not rule out a future campaign, It will be the 12th time Chicago has hosted the Democrats; the GOP will gather in Milwaukee for their convention in mid-July, Several other cities are holding mayoral elections or primaries, The probabilities will be determined by polling, particularly as that becomes more frequent. Skew results Democratic Republican Use Preset Result Data *Uses current state electoral vote count 1. Out-talk, Out-smart, and Out-spend your Opponents, The Political Machine 2020 v1.4 - The Final Stretch, The Political Machine 2020 v1.31 - The Big Issues, Most Interesting Political Machine 2020 YouTube Videos. Race to the White House. It is 2016. THE RACE TO 270 A candidate must win at least 270 electoral votesa majority of the total 538to become president. It's almost here - the moment we've all been waiting for - Community Hub. In this game, you will make choices. More on that later. The split can be edited in this table. 13.5%. Run for President of the United States as one of over a dozen presidential candidates or create your own ideal candidate. The electoral map has shifted in 2020, amid new challenges from misinformation to mail-in ballots. Election Manager comes with a variety of scenarios, from a recreation of the 2012 election to a four-way election between independent parties. Use Simplified Version of the Electoral College Calculator, Electoral College Calculator and Map Generator - 2024. 201620122008200420001996199219881984198019761972196819641960195619521948194419401936193219281924192019161912190819041900189618921888188418801876187218681864186018561852184818441840 Adjust the Turnout and Two-Party Vote to Simulate 2016 Presidential Election Scenarios. View our Campaign Trail Hall of Fame. Development and design by Robin Muccari, Nigel Chiwaya, Jiachuan Wu and Sophie Andrews. No district-level delegates from Pennsylvania are allocated because those delegates are directly elected without indicating presidential preference. The model used here allocates the congressional district electoral votes in those states separately from the statewide electoral votes. Election Simulator 2016 is the result of being fed up with the 2016 election. However, like Latinos, these voters are heavily concentrated in less competitive states such as California, Hawaii and Washington. Start with the results of the previous election, adjusted for demographic change since 2016. Build your own US election result: plot a Biden or Trump win Biden may be ahead in the polls, but key battlegrounds that the Democrats lost unexpectedly in 2016 could come through again for. Which President's personality most closely matches yours? By Aaron Bycoffe and David Wasserman. Demographic Group. Just kidding! Dive in. Well, it looks like we have our general election match-up: Jeb Bush vs. Martin O'Malley. In 2000, Al Gore carried just 169. One of only 5 elections (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, 2016) where the popular vote winner was defeated Hillary Clinton first female presidential nominee of a major political party Clinton won Maine but Trump earned an electoral vote by winning the popular vote in the 2nd Congressional District. Nothing has been posted to this project page yet. This is also visualised in the form of. Independent Evan McMullin received 21.5% of the vote in Utah; best '3rd party' performance in any single state since Ross Perot in 1992, Libertarian Gary Johnson received over 3% of the nationwide vote; best 3rd party performance nationwide since Ross Perot in 1996. This isn't Earth 6. Steam and the Steam logo are trademarks and/or registered trademarks of Valve Corporation in the U.S. and/or other countries. States Choosing Electors using Winner-take-all Method: (Prefer a Simpler Version? ) But it's not just any ol' electoral map simulator; we made a tool that lets you also 1) jump to particular scenarios and 2) see how the states have voted in the past. It's very simple: Choose a 3-party presidential race from the drop -down. Interactive US map from jquery us-map . Finally, we adjusted the size of each demographic group by doubling census-estimated population change for voting-age citizens from 2016 to 2018. Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine. High Latino turnout will be most crucial to Clinton's prospects in Florida and Nevada. New for 2016:The 2016 simulator is no longer coded in Flash, so it will work on your mobile device. "WE THE PEOPLE" ELECTION SIMULATION: In this extended class activity students take part in an election simulation as a way of evaluating the election procedures used in the state of Connecticut and nationally and examine key elements of elections such as voter participation, eligibility, election security and the electoral process. Simulation Infogram. 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. All rights reserved. Follow Race to the WH on. The answers will affect your popularity for better or worse, both nationally and in individual states. Take our Presidential Personality Quiz. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. Forum Discussion of the 2016 Presidential Election; Forum Discussion of the 2016 Gubernatorial Elections; Forum Discussion of the 2016 Congressional Elections; Follow Updates.

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