Allen needs to find the touch to go with that cannon because its frankly inexcusable that a player with his kind of arm talent is this bad at passing deep. Which Rough NFL Starts Are Salvageable, and Which Are Season-Enders? When was Drew Brees drafted? Drew Brees played 287 games over his career. Note: Kizer taking care of the ball better than expected on deep passes is particularly notable since he very obviously had no ability to take care of the ball in the red zone, when the field got shorter. Three-point Field Goals Made Per Game. Sixteen quarterbacks finished above the average for accuracy percentage, and the same number finished above the average for efficiency score. The only area he struggled in was on throws of 20 to 24 yards, where he finished 16th. I know this from experience because of my research on downfield throws. For instance, suppose a quarterback throws an accurate pass of 40-plus yards. (So does Taysom Hill.). The only valid argument you make is the correlation to Fahey's numbers. Thats an especially pressing issue now, with Thomas still struggling to return and leading wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders on the COVID-19 reserve list. Plus, a Full NFL Draft Reaction. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. TD. Is the reviewer a Colts fan, for instance? Tom Brady was slightly below average, which isn't really that surprising. Gardner Minshew has one of the weaker arms in the league, so this is proof that exceptional deep passing is not about arm strength but rather accuracy, timing and anticipation. He is the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history. So here's how each area of the field is handled in that regard: One additional point will be handed out if the accurate pass was delivered under pressure or in a tight window (where the quarterback has much less margin for error). Tom Brady's relatively poor rating surprises me a bit, given what I perceived as one of his better downfield seasons. My Wish 2007 Drew Brees - Devan Muller meets Drew Brees, Brees fires up LSU baseball with old Saints hype speech. Luck, in 2016 and throwing to many of the same receivers (Hilton, Moncrief, Doyle), completed 26 of 55 attempts over 20 yards. One of the areas the Cowboys improved passing attack manifested itself last season was in Dak Prescotts deep passing performance. Now let's get to the accuracy percentages on every distance of deep passes. Nobody throws a prettier deep pass than Russell Wilson, and it turns out thats not only backed up by PFF grade but also by his production. What, Exactly, Is the Detroit Lions Plan? Elos spread: Baltimore -3. Its not that Derek Carr is bad at passing deep, its just that it seems to be near impossible to convince him to try it. No, 90 gifs are unquestionably NOT sufficient when they're spread out over 30+ players. That results in the quarterback's efficiency score. But so far this season, Brees has generally ignored Sanders, who has just four catches for 37 yards. No passer could match the 13 touchdowns Mahomes managed on deep targets they were two more than the next closest quarterback. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. Still, he can say he ranked one spot higher in efficiency than Tom Brady. If thats not enough, there are another three years of gifs/studies to consider. The 2017-18 edition includes much more than previous editions, but the most significant stat is Efficiency Score. Ryan, of course, has some elite playmakers to throw the ball to downfield, so we should expect him to feature high on this list because of the favorable looks he will regularly see. Learning How to Successfully Predict the Top NFL Prospects. Although if you give the QB credit for throwing up jump balls to a very good receiver, you're essentially crediting the QB for having a good receiver when the whole point is trying to isolate the QB from his surroundings. The success Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had should not be a surprise, as they have consistently ranked as two of the absolute best downfield passers in the Deep Ball Project's history. All 259 picks are in. Obviously things won't line up 100%, but some things I noticed: Different amount of 16yard+ attempts. Get complete game-by-game stats for quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. in his play as Winston has, Jameis led the NFL in yardage (1,351), completions (40) and attempts (99) on deep shots but was fourth in big-time throws, 12th in both completion rate and adjusted completion rate and 15th in passer rating, all despite having one of the best receiving pairings in football. Despite 662 dropbacks, Goff took a shot deep just 56 times (8.9%) and scored only one touchdown on those plays, despite having plenty to work with in terms of receiving talent. Even McLaurin was responsible for dropping one of Haskins best passes, which would have moved the needle on his numbers given his low sample size, but the PFF grade accounts for that, and the grade was also bad. Drew Brees had 80,358 passing yards over his career. Or write about sports? That is 21.4 yards/attemp. Drew Lock took just 11 deep shots over the season, so this number comes with a significant sample size caveat, but it felt more worthwhile than analyzing Joe Flaccos struggles. @Neil_Paine, NFL (976 posts) Please note that the rankings for clean pockets, pressure, play-action, off-balance, open windows, and tight windows DO NOT REFLECT ACCURACY FOR THIS CHART, just how frequently each quarterback was in each scenario. Making it under pressure or in a tight window adds one point to make it seven. Or on sideline routes the QB might put it up high enough that the receiver catches it or it is OOB. If you have a receiver that wins the jump-ball regularly, then the QB SHOULD throw jump balls to him, he's an idiot if he doesn't. Nobody had more interceptions (nine) or turnover-worthy plays (12) on deep targets in 2019 than Rivers did. Cousins had 16 big-time throws on his 61 deep attempts and suffered from three drops on those deep passes. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Steals Per Game. Again, you can find an even larger amount of information on the actual Deep Ball Project at this link. By QBR, Brees is doing better this year than in 2019 another very short-passing season by historical standards despite throwing deep even less (and despite not having Thomas, who set the all-time NFL record for receptions in a season last year). I'd advise editing out the childish "are you skeptical of this unrelated thing too?" He was the best downfield passer of 2017, as well as the most accurate. Clutch Yes. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be the only quarterback in the league who can rival Jameis Winston for Y.O.L.O. These subjective to objective metrics never seem very accurate to me. We present them here for purely educational purposes. This came with the same supporting cast, so what happened? Join our linker program. Brown. Or write about sports? His accuracy was 15th with good pass protection, but was second-to-last under pressure. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. He led the NFL in completion percentage, had a 27-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and helped earn the Saints a 13-3 record (8-3 in Breess starts) and the top seed in the NFC. He had just 48 deep attempts last season, which was one of the lower deep shot rates (9.4%) in the league. There was also a large amount of read-option. Tom Brady has never been the leagues best deep passer, but like everything else in New England, his deep passing suffered from the lack of quality receivers in 2019. The problem is that you can't even come close to evaluating the strength of the study with 2-3 gifs per QB. Stafford has 1614 adjusted yards in 86 attempts. How big of a role did Sean Payton play in Drew . It has been no secret that Alex Smith's career, for the most part, has been defined by his safe style of playing quarterback. I am unconvinced. Every offseason, I independently chart quarterbacks on what I like to call the Deep Ball Project. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Even Mason Rudolph, who only started eight games, had six more deep shots than Garoppolo did all year. It has been a magic act worth appreciating. He forced the highest amount of inaccurate completions with 15, and constantly threw the ball to defenders, getting away with dropped interceptions. (I'm guessing no, otherwise Kinsley would have mentioned it.) Fandom; Futhead; Drew Brees Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com Drew Brees Drew Christopher Brees Position: QB Throws: Right 6-0 , 209lb (183cm, 94kg) Born: January 15 in Austin, TX (Age: 44-060d) More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 13x Pro Bowl 1x All-Pro 1x SB Champ SB XLIV MVP 2004 AP Comeback Player 2x AP Off. In reply to Re: I do not want to be trollish or dismissive by Hoodie_Sleeves. Your bad arguments and bad attitude undermine a potentially valid point. He has not been a great downfield passer for a while, lacking the precision he has shown in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Ryan lacked the stellar stats of his MVP year in 2016, but that's because the departure of Kyle Shanahan produced far fewer open windows and he had 18 accurate incompletions (accurate passes that the receiver failed to catch). Even then, his accuracy in that area was still above average. I'm not sure docking 3 points for an inaccurate completion makes sense, it seems like it would be too harsh in many cases. Of course a QB could also be overly-aggressive or a poor decision-maker. But watching him play, he doesnt seem convinced that it worked. For example, Brisett goes from 22/60 to 39/60 because he gets credited with 19 accurate incompletions. From a Colts fan perspective, I don't remember their being complaints about Brissett's deep ball. ESPN profiled Breess offseason attempts to maintain his arm strength back in August. Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar even named a specific statistic after Smith, measuring how aggressive or conservative quarterbacks were on third down. Only Tyrod Taylor lost completions to receiver error more often than Brissett did. Let's consider that the Eagles gave Nick Foles the second-highest rate of play-action when Wentz was lost for the season. Javascript is required for the selection of a player. From his Combine profile: "Struggles with deep ball accuracy completing just 23.1 percent on attempts of 21-plus yards. Breess throwing coach, Tom House, bragged to ESPN that this summer, Brees had built up his arm to the point where he was throwing the ball 57, 58 yards without even trying. Brees used to throw the ball that deep in games. topg. Career Stats: Brees: 249 Games, 66.9% completion, 70,445 yards, 488TDs, 228 Ints, QB Rating 96.7. ex: Jimmy Garoppolo was 25 spots better for John (& 24.9% better accuracy). Not surprising for a quarterback with as much Y.O.L.O. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. Theres not much to like about Haskins numbers from his rookie season except the mitigating circumstances that he was really without many viable passing targets, with only really rookie Terry McLaurin showing up reliably. Payton also drew up a variety of play-action bombs, often with Brees rolling out, that gave Henderson and others time to get deep and Brees plenty of space to step into his throws. Last year, that fell to 8.2 percent, the lowest mark of his career and second-lowest among starting quarterbacks. And no QB in the entire sample had a season in which he threw a smaller share of passes 20 or more yards downfield than Breess 3.3 percent rate so far in 2020. Gender: Male. Despite his lack of arm strength and disinclination to throw any deeper than 20 yards downfield, Brees has added value through sheer accuracy and ability to read defenses. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees, Oct. 29, 2020, Our exclusive database, featuring the most in-depth collection of NFL player performance data. Drew Brees. PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts. For his career, 10.8 percent of Breess throws have been to targets deeper than 20 yards downfield. Watson had the third-highest rate of clean pockets, the 11th-highest rate of play-action, the 11th-lowest rate of tight windows, and the 10th-highest rate of open windows. From Joe Burrow to Chase Young, which players from the class of 2020 had their options picked up or declined? Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. How much can Joel Embiid give the Sixers against the Celtics? Although Next Gen Stats estimates that Brees and Garoppolo have made the easiest throws of any QB this season each has an expected completion percentage of about 71 percent based on the depth (and other characteristics) of their throws Brees has somehow managed to exceed that expectation, completing his passes at a rate 1.9 percentage points higher than wed expect of an average QB with the same set of throws. How much does Drew Lock weigh? And as expected, he couldn't even compare to Aaron Rodgers. Some of it comes down to Kamaras unique talent as a receiver; no other running back is even close to being as valuable a pass catcher, according to Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement metric. That inaccurate completions number is a perfect illustration of Keenum's luck last year and why the Vikings were right to let him go. Todd McShay breaks down the Eagles' draft that netted them Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith among others. Tom Brady saw the second-highest rate of open-window passes. Though he faced more pressure downfield, Foles was still able to get friendly reads because of the variety of play-calling that Doug Pederson provided. Here are five questions that could determine that series outcome. You don't expect a top receiver to let down his quarterback that many times. Bill O'Brien had zero excuses for taking away those calls from Savage. Keenum was #1 in DYAR. Outside of throws of 40-plus yards, Nick Foles' accuracy was lacking. . On the 37 deep attempts after he got in the lineup, he didnt have a single turnover-worthy play or interception, even if his numbers became a little inflated by work done after the catch by the likes of A.J. A lot of it has to do with coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael engineering efficient throws: According to the NFLs Next Gen Stats, 51 percent of Breess passes this season have been characterized as open or wide-open, meaning no defender was within 3 yards of the pass target when it arrived; only three qualified passers (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Jimmy Garoppolo) made more of their throws to receivers so lightly covered.2. [Editors note:Subscribe to PFF ELITE todayto gain access to PFFsPremium Statsand newPlayer Grades experiencein addition to the2020 NFL Draft Guide,2020 Fantasy Rookie Scouting Report,PFF Greenline, all of PFFs premium article content and more.]. Even within the subset of deep passes, it would appear that Brissett is throwing a high number of deep balls that are even less likely to be completed than average. The quality of Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett meant that he was constantly throwing to open receivers as well. Heres a pass from 2010 where Brees tosses the ball 57 yards to his all-time favorite deep threat, Devery Henderson: The Saints have long thrived on the underneath passing game, but thats always been helped by the fact that New Orleans consistently pairs Brees with a speedster who can beat defenses over the top. Hed go on to lead the league in deep throw passing yards four more times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012), completions on deep throws four times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012) and touchdowns on deep throws seven times, including six straight years from 2008 to 2013. ), Fewest air yards per pass attempt and smallest share of attempts that went 20+ yards in the air for qualified NFL passers, 2006-2020. I just said you should give credit to the WR for allowing the QB to make an easier read and throw because when that WR gets hurt or leaves in free agency, that ability goes with him. During Sunday night's highlights show, Brees did a breakdown of the Packers-Saints highlights and marveled at the big arm that new Saints QB Jameis Winston showed off during the 38-3 win over the. Brissett hit 51.5 percent of his deep throws (21+ yards), 16.1 percent above the league average (4th highest overall), but too often those big plays were ruined by one of his receivers. By the end of it, they were all hurt and he was tossing passes to a former college quarterback and AAF star in Greg Ward. more attempts in Cian's charting. However, over the past few seasons, he hasnt been as efficient with those deep shots and has never been aggressive with the frequency with which he goes deep. In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by ramirez. Suddenly, Smith was throwing the ball downfield more consistently. Drew Brees completed 67.7 percent of passes in his career. The Ravens are declining linebacker Patrick Queen's fifth-year option, a source told ESPN. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Burrow had just two turnover-worthy plays on 83 deep shots, and though his arm is far from the strongest in his draft class (let alone in the entire NFL), he has the other skills to still be an effective deep passer. Is there any reason to believe it's not? In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by hoegher. Interpreted as: deep ball completion percent with a minimum of 1500 passing attempts leaders. He is one of just six passers with 1,000 or more yards on deep shots last season and managed to throw 11 touchdowns to only one interception on those plays. To try and keep this relevant to all 32 NFL teams, we dug into the past a little bit for numbers on certain quarterbacks while the rest are 2019 numbers only. The real question, however, will be if Brees can keep it up over the rest of the season. The Day Kansas City Drafted Patrick Mahomes, Aidan O'Connell, Tanner McKee, and the Day 3 QBs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba Highlights Deep Class of WRs, Most Undervalued Players in a 2023 Fantasy Football Draft, Colts Take Will Levis in Latest Mock Draft. The player with arguably the leagues strongest arm is arguably the leagues worst deep passer. We are gathered here today to remember Drew Breess arm. What Will Happen? We present them here for purely educational purposes. His completion rate and other numbers werent terrible on those plays; the Raiders just need to find a way to coax him into attempting more of them and must surely be hoping that Henry Ruggs III will be the player to help that.

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